Land Transport Review Part 3: Private transport (car)

The final installment of the three-part series announcement on the Land Transport Review is revealed. While the first two parts focused on public transport, the third part of the Land Transport Review touched on private transport, a.k.a. cars.

For those who are looking for earth-shattering announcement similar to those on buses and trains, you'll be disappointed. Other than some interesting quote that the US supposedly spent so much time in traffic jam that those time can filled 65 million iPod Nanos [though he didn't qualify whether those are 4GB or 8GB iPod Nanos]), the prescription to cure the illness of wasting too much time on the road due to traffic jam are just common pills that we are all familiar with: slower road expansion plan, curb car usage with more ERP coverage and higher ERP rates, while at the same time balancing those increase with lower car ownership cost, coupled with improvement in public transport. All these are reinforcement of Government has been trying to do, that is to increase car ownership but discourage peak hour travel by dangling carrot (creating a more attractive public transport) and leashing the stick (more ERP gantries and more expensive ERP rates).

As promised, the speech is summarised in the table below (click on image for clearer text). To be able to comprehend the table, please make reference to the full Minister's speech appended below (also available here).

Click here for bigger image

In what I see as an acknowledgement of why motorists have not been enjoying smooth traffic condition despite paying for ERP charges and promised by LTA that the traffic speed at the roads were "optimal", the Minister finally admitted that LTA has not been measuring the road traffic speed appropriately. As such, instead of using average speed as a measure to monitor road condition, LTA will revised their speed measurement method to using 85th percentile speed to determine whether the speed of a road has degraded to a point that necessitate the erection of a ERP gantry. The implication of this is that the bar for road speed will be raised which will leads to easier justification for more ERP gantries.

In fact, more ERP gantries is confirmed by the Minister. While putting emphasis on erecting more gantries in the city areas, some similar to the creation Orchard cordon to reduce through traffic, there are no further details as to how many more ERP gantries will be mushrooming across the city state. With so many ERP gantries coming up, the Government should rethink the way ERP is administered. What happened to the satellite-based ERP system which allows for the ugly and expensive gantries to be removed?

Not only can the satellite-based ERP system replaced the gantries, they can also revolutionarize how road tax are charged. Instead of a lump sum charged based on engine capacity, why not charge based on the distance a vehicle travelled? I see this as the most equitable way to move forward, as motorists who used the road more will be taxed more. Also, it will encourage motorists to be conscious of their route choice to opt for shortest distance. But then again, the Minister chose to shy away these topics in his review which were very much in lively debates barely a few years ago.

Lower vehicle growth rate is expected in line with lower road expansion rate. Though the North-South Expressway is welcomed (think of it as the equivalent of Thomson Line for North-South Line MRT), I foresee a fierce fight put up by people who are supportive of environment causes. Why? The expressway will most likely cut through part of the nature reserves and the fringe of the reservoirs, which will definitely draw protests from Nature Society or other environmentalists. Just like the rare bird habitats in the Seletar Expressway construction episode, be prepared to see more fights in the North-South Expressway construction.

To appease the motorists who have to take the bitter pill of more expensive road usage, the Government is committed to offer alternative. In fact, they promised that the bitter pills for road usage will not kick in until improvements to the public transport is made. This they will allow for more premium buses, higher frequencies for feeder bus services and trains, and more competition between buses and trains in mature rail lines. As a stick that whips hard on SMRT who refuses to improved their lunch time frequency, the Government will be revising the Operating Performance Standards that will stipulate train frequencies in morning peak-of-the-peak and lunch time.

With these, I end the three part series of the Land Transport Review. I thank all who have read the articles, friends who have given suggestions on improvements, and readers who have been discussing/debating on the issues raised actively.

Look out for the full report which will be released by March 2008. There will be an interesting report in it which will bound to raise eyebrows. Stay tuned.

Related articles:

• Land Transport Review Part 1: Public transport (bus)
• Land Transport Review Part 2: Public transport (rail)
• Land Transport Review Part 3: Private transport (car)
  

SPEECH BY MR RAYMOND LIM, MINISTER FOR TRANSPORT AND SECOND MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS,
AT THE VISIT TO KALLANG-PAYA LEBAR EXPRESSWAY
WEDNESDAY, 30 JANUARY 2008, 10.15AM

ENSURING SMOOTH FLOWING ROADS


KPE to Open by September 2008

1. It is a pleasure to join you this morning at the Kallang-Paya Lebar Expressway (KPE) Operations Control Centre for an update on KPE Phase 2. The KPE project team has worked very hard and made good progress. I am pleased to announce that the full KPE will be opened on 20 September 2008. With this new high speed access, northeast residents can expect travel time to the city to be cut by 25%. The KPE will also help relieve congestion on the Central Expressway (CTE).


Building Roads for the Future

2. Beyond short-term needs, our priority is to continue investing for the future. The $2.5 billion Marina Coastal Expressway (MCE) is on track for completion by 2013. A key expressway supporting the development of the Marina Bay, the MCE is crucial for the long-term growth of Singapore.

3. Indeed, when it comes to investing for growth, we do not stand still. Following LTA’s studies, the Government has given the go-ahead to build the North-South Expressway or NSE by 2020 to cater to the projected growth in travel between the northern and city areas. With the 21 km-long NSE, Singapore’s 11th expressway costing $7-8 billion, residents in the north can expect travel time to the city to be cut by 30%.


Addressing Congestion Holistically

4. Besides these billion-dollar road projects, the LTA will continue to improve roads across Singapore, for example, widening the CTE and the Tampines Expressway (TPE) to increase capacity and improving interchanges such as the Woodsville Interchange to enhance connectivity and traffic flow. Likewise, intelligent transport solutions such as the Expressway Monitoring and Advisory System or EMAS will be expanded to optimise the use of our roads.

5. However, increasing road capacity and deploying traffic engineering measures will not in themselves guarantee smooth flowing roads. Additional lanes and new roads attract more traffic and congestion soon returns. As a Time Magazine writer put it, “traffic is like water; it oozes across all available surface.”

6. The insatiable appetite for more cars has led to an uphill battle against gridlock in many cities. In fast growing economies like China, the car population grows at more than 20% a year and peak-hour traffic in mega-cities like Beijing and Shanghai crawls at 5km an hour. In the United States, motorists spent more than 4.2 billion hours stuck in jams, enough time to fill 65 million iPod Nanos with music, and used up enough extra fuel to fill 58 supertankers. The “congestion invoice” in the US stands at some $78 billion each year while congestion costs are estimated to be about 1% of GDP in European countries such as Britain and France.

7. Singaporeans likewise desire to own cars and our policies, in particular, the use of Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) to manage traffic, have made it possible for many Singaporeans to do so. And so the vehicle population has grown steadily to the 850,000 vehicles today. With rising affluence, not only are more Singaporeans owning cars, they are also using them more intensively. While the number of cars increased by 10% between 1997 and 2004, the number of car trips increased by 23%, more than double.

8. The effects are telling. Congestion levels have increased by about 25% since 1999, with more roads congested during the peak hours. A December 2007 Singapore Business Review article entitled “Gridlocked Nation” warned that “if Singapore’s growing traffic problems [were] not solved soon, the surging economy could feel the crunch.”

9. Against our ever growing appetite for car use, we are faced with the immutable realities of Singapore’s situation: a compact city state with 12% of its land already used up for roads. While we will continue to build roads like the NSE, going ahead, the pace of road expansion will have to slow down, from 1% a year over the last 15 years, to 0.5% a year over the next 15 years.

10. There are three inescapable conclusions from these observations. First, as more and more Singaporeans own cars, it is clearly not possible for all of them to drive their cars to and from work every day. The only way to move large numbers of people efficiently in our densely populated city is by public transport. It is therefore critical that we make public transport much more attractive to the vast majority of Singaporeans, including those who have access to cars.

11. Second, the trade-offs that we are faced with have become much sharper. The more cars Singa­poreans own, the more extensive ERP coverage and the higher the charges would have to be. This is the key trade-off we have to make, to maintain smooth flowing roads.

12. Third, even with more extensive ERP, the current vehicle growth rate of 3% is not sustainable, given the already large vehicle population and the slowdown in road growth. We have to lower vehicle growth.

13. These are not easy issues but we have to make these difficult decisions and act decisively to manage car growth and usage to ensure that Singaporeans will continue to enjoy a quality living environment.


(I) Improving Public Transport

14. First and foremost, we are taking major steps to make public transport a choice mode of travel. We will plan our bus and rail network as an integrated system from the commuters’ perspective, with more frequent services and seamless transfers. We will also spend billions of dollars to double our rail network, enabling many more people to benefit from fast and reliable MRT connections. These measures will transform our bus and rail services, reduce journey times and increase comfort and convenience for commuters. Beyond these, we will also make immediate improvements to public transport – both bus and rail - so that people will have a good alternative to cars. Let me begin with the buses.


Improving Bus Services

15. Long waiting times, long journey times and overcrowding are the three most common complaints amongst bus commuters. These are the same reasons that discourage more people from taking public transport today. The bus priority measures such as bus lanes which we are putting in by June 2008 will help reduce waiting and journey times. These measures will help improve average bus speeds to 20-25kph, up from today’s 16kph for feeder buses and 19kph for trunk buses. In addition, we will:

(i) Increase frequencies of basic bus services, including feeder services;

(ii) Allow basic bus services to duplicate parts of the rail network; and

(iii) Expand premium bus services to provide more choices.


Increasing Frequencies of Basic Bus Services, including Feeder Services

16. To shorten bus journey and waiting times, and reduce crowding, we will enhance the frequency of basic bus services. In particular, we will put priority on corridors affected by impending ERP expansion, where the bus operators will increase the peak period frequency of all basic bus services from 15 minutes to 12 minutes by June 2008 and 10 minutes by August 2009.

17. Many commuters use feeder bus services to connect to MRT stations and bus interchanges. To reduce their waiting time, we will increase the frequency of feeder services. Over and above the minimum frequencies which the Public Transport Council (PTC) specifies for all bus services, the PTC will also be spelling out a separate and higher Quality of Service (QoS) standard for peak hour feeder bus services. The PTC will announce changes after consultation with the public transport operators.

18. The bus operators will have to procure additional buses to run the trunk and feeder bus services at higher frequencies. As this will take time, LTA will in the interim, extend the statutory life span of existing buses to expedite implementation.


Allowing Basic Bus Services to Duplicate Parts of the Rail Network

19. Today, trunk buses are not allowed to run routes that are parallel to rail lines. This avoids wasteful duplication of resources, which would increase the overall cost of our public transport system. However, LTA has reviewed and will relax this rule for the mature rail lines, namely the North-South and East-West lines, where ridership is high and the scope for expanding rail capacity quickly is limited. From June 2008, we will allow new bus services to ply along the North-South and East West lines where there is persistent heavy passenger loading during peak hours. For example, it will now be possible to have a more direct bus that runs parallel to the North-South Line, from Ang Mo Kio to Orchard Road, compared to existing services which have more indirect routes. This would give commuters an attractive alternative to trains.


Expanding Premium Bus Services to Provide More Choices

20. We will also expand premium bus services which provide more comfortable and direct journeys. We currently have 42 services. We will work with the bus operators to increase the number to at least 72 by June 2008, putting priority on routes affected by ERP expansion. For example, premium bus services will provide direct connections from residential areas such as Katong, Holland, Bukit Timah, Choa Chu Kang, Sengkang, Tampines, and Yio Chu Kang to the Shenton Way, Robinson Road, Suntec City and Orchard Road areas. The operators will also provide return trips in the evening on high demand services.


Increasing Train Capacity

21. Even as we improve bus services, we will also increase the frequency and capacity of our trains, for a more comfortable ride.

22. I have mentioned in my earlier speech that an immediate improvement is the addition of 93 train trips a week during the morning and evening peak periods from February. For commuters, this will mean less crowded trains and a reduction in waiting time by about 10-15% during peak hours.

23. Further, as part of LTA’s effort in revising the rail Operating Performance Standards, more frequent services will be required during peak time periods. For example, commuters should only have to wait for about 2 to 3 minutes during the morning peak-of-peaks when commuter volume is highest. During the lunch period, the frequency would be improved to about 5 to 6 minutes, down from the current 7 minutes. LTA will work with the rail operators to bring about these improvements.


(II) Ensuring that ERP Remains Effective

24. Besides vastly improving public transport, we will also need to enhance our ERP system. As with putting in more roads and traffic engineering measures, simply improving public transport on its own will not solve the congestion problem. Of all the different measures to deal with congestion, ERP is the only one that addresses the problem directly by requiring individuals to take into account the costs of congestion caused by their driving to others. Many other cities are coming to the same conclusion that there is no choice but to introduce congestion charging on heavily used roads. London, Stockholm and Milan have done so and New York and Amsterdam are considering it. Without ERP, Singaporeans would be spending many hours in traffic snarls, just like people in Tokyo, Los Angeles and many other US cities, who pay for congestion, not with their wallets, but with the time that they have lost, stuck in traffic gridlock.

25. However, it is a growing challenge to keep our roads smooth flowing. On the one hand, road growth is slowing; on the other hand, we are packing more and more cars onto our roads. In the last ten years, the car population grew by almost 40%, from 370,000 in 1997 to 515,000 today Coupled with this is the fact that our cars are among the most intensively used in the world, averaging 21,000 km a year, compared to 9,100 km in London, 13,900 km in Melbourne, and 19,800 km in Chicago. Not surprisingly, all these have resulted in the crowded roads and frequent peak hour congestion that we see today.

26. Our ERP system has served us well, but it is coming under strain. We often hear feedback that ERP has not helped to ease congestion on the highest demand roads like the CTE beyond a temporary respite; that ERP rate increases have little impact on travel behaviour; and that even though people pay ERP, they still face congestion on priced roads. There is some truth in this. The reason is that rising affluence has led to a greater propensity to drive which in turn has caused a dramatic rise in traffic volumes; so much so that the scale and intensity of traffic congestion today is far different from what it was a decade ago. Increasingly, given the more pervasive congestion today, the emphasis must be on encouraging motorists to shift to public transport, rather than drive on alternative roads to their destination. This is why the Government is spending billions of dollars to improve our public transport system to make it a viable alternative to the car.

27. Further, our ERP system has essentially remained unchanged since 1998. Hence, it is critical that we review the ERP system and enhance it to better address current and future traffic conditions. As a Thomson resident told me when I visited the area recently, people are willing to pay ERP charges but they must see the benefit from it. In other words, the ERP system must be made more effective. LTA has studied the matter carefully and assessed that, to manage congestion effectively, it is necessary to make the following changes:

(i) Refine the method of measuring traffic speeds;

(ii) Update the ERP rate structure; and

(iii) Manage congestion in the city area.


Refine Method of Measuring Traffic Speeds

28. The optimal traffic speed thresholds of 45 kph on our expressways and 20 kph for arterial roads have been set to ensure smooth-flowing traffic. Yet, very often, motorists who pay ERP still find themselves getting caught in slow traffic, and even experiencing “stop-start” conditions, despite fine weather, and with no accident in sight.

29. LTA did a traffic study which found that the 45 kph and 20 kph threshold speeds which were set 10 years ago, are today close to the point where traffic flow can deteriorate very rapidly to what traffic engineers call the “unstable zone”, where “stop-start” traffic conditions become common. When this happens, all it takes is a minor disturbance in the traffic flow and the traffic speeds can drop quite sharply. This is undesirable and we need to create a buffer to ensure better traffic conditions.

30. After careful review, LTA has decided to address this problem by adopting a more representative method of measuring actual traffic conditions for ERP rate reviews, with speeds determined using the 85th percentile speed measurement method. The 85th percentile speed measurement method is also an international traffic engineering practice for assessing traffic conditions.

31. The 85th percentile speed measurement method will result in better driving conditions for more motorists than the current methodology of using the average or mean speed, as it ensures that 85% of motorists will experience speeds above the threshold. The nature of averaging is such that lower speed readings would be evened out by higher speed readings. Hence, even if the average speed on an ERP-priced road is recorded as being above the threshold, the actual speeds may well be lower than the threshold for a significant part of the time. For example, even though the average travelling speed on the PIE from 7.30 to 8 am was above 45 kph in early January this year, up to 38% of the motorists were actually travelling at speeds below 45 kph. On Thomson Road in October 2007, about half of the motorists travelled at speeds below 20 kph between 8.30-9am, even though the average speed was 20 kph. Thus, using average speeds aggravates the risk of traffic falling into the unstable zone. This also explains why there is at times a disconnect between what LTA says and motorists’ actual driving experience. LTA is correct that the average speed is above the speed thresholds but a good number of motorists are not actually experiencing such speeds.

32. Hence, LTA will no longer use average travelling speeds to determine ERP rate changes. Instead, LTA will use the speed taken at the 85th percentile level. With this change, at least 85% of motorists will be assured of smooth travel on ERP-priced roads.


Update the ERP Rate Structure

33. Traffic volumes have increased substantially in the last few years. This has resulted in the need to make more frequent rate changes on our ERP-priced roads and expressways, from 9 times in 2006 to 25 times in 2007, based on the same number of gantries. Instead of resorting to so many small adjustments, it would be more effective to make larger rate increments. Indeed, many people have commented that the 50 cents rate increment has only a temporary impact on driving behaviour as it is not significant enough to cause people to change their travel behaviour.

34. Therefore, for ERP charges to remain effective in influencing motorists’ behaviour, LTA will raise the incremental ERP charge from $0.50 to $1. In addition, the ERP base charge, which is the starting charge for a new ERP gantry point, will be increased from the current $1 to $2. These changes will improve the effectiveness of the ERP system, so that each time ERP rates are adjusted, motorists who still choose to drive on these roads would see a visible improvement in traffic flows.


Manage Congestion in the City Area

35. City traffic has been building up in the last few years. It is now much more congested in and around the city. Compared to 5 years ago, speeds on major roads in the CBD have fallen by more than 25%. For example, five years ago, a motorist crossing the city from Bugis to Chinatown in the evening enjoyed travelling speeds of 25 kph. Today, the speeds have fallen by almost 30% to 18 kph. At major cross junctions between North Bridge Road and Bras Basah Road, as well as South Bridge Road and Cross Street, the build-up of traffic has resulted in motorists having to wait for 3 or more traffic light changes before they are able to cross the junctions. We cannot let conditions deteriorate further.

36. LTA has carefully studied the traffic situation and will introduce additional ERP gantries in the city area in July 2008 to manage traffic more effectively. These gantries will run roughly along the Singapore River from Clemenceau Avenue to Fullerton Road. Their purpose is to reduce the through traffic, which currently makes up about 38% of the traffic, in this very busy area.


Phasing In the Changes

37. The revised speed measurement criteria and the new rates will be introduced from July 2008, only after the public transport improvements have been rolled out by June 2008. These public transport measures will increase rail and bus passenger capacity by 15,000 trips and 6,800 trips respectively during the morning peak hours. These are more than sufficient to cater to the 6,000 passenger car trips that LTA estimates may be affected by these ERP changes during that period.

38. LTA will phase in the ERP changes, starting with the CBD and Orchard cordons in July as the city area is a key priority. It will then extend the new criteria and rates to other roads progressively with an additional 6 new gantries put up to deal with peak hour congestion in November. This is to give time for people to adjust their travel plans and allow for the impact of changes in the city area to work its way through the rest of the road network. Hence, if as a result of the new ERP rates in the city area, fewer motorists drive on the arterial roads and expressways leading to the city, we may not need to adjust the ERP rates even with the new criteria. LTA will give more details of the new ERP gantries later.


Vehicle Ownership Taxes to be Lowered

39. With all these changes to the ERP system, the expected increase in ERP revenue will be about $70 million a year. In line with our policy to shift progressively towards taxing on the basis of vehicle usage rather than ownership, the Government will reduce road tax by 15% for all vehicles, including taxis. I urge taxi operators to pass on the savings to taxi drivers. This permanent road tax reduction will cost the Government about $110 million annually. It underlines the point that the higher ERP charge is to address congestion and is not a revenue raising measure. If motorists were to drive less, the Government would be happy to collect less ERP revenue.

40. In addition, to lower the upfront cost of car ownership, we will also reduce the Additional Registration Fee (ARF) for cars, lowering the rates from 110% of Open Market Value (OMV) to 100% of OMV with effect from March 2008. The Government will collect about $200 million less annually.


(III) Lower Vehicle Growth Rate

41. Besides enhancing the effectiveness of ERP, we will also need to lower the vehicle growth rate.

42. Every weekday morning and evening, we feel the impact of our 850,000-strong vehicle population on the roads. When I go to dialogue sessions, I often get questions like “Don’t you think there are too many cars on the roads?” People tell me that it is not just the city areas that are getting congested but also suburban areas like Serangoon and Thomson, which they say get chock-a-block full of cars in the evenings. One of the reasons for this increasing congestion is that in applying a 3% growth rate to the current vehicle population base, we have been adding 25,000 vehicles onto the roads each year, compared to 16,000 vehicles back in 1990 when the Vehicle Quota System was introduced. If we continue at a 3% growth rate, we would have enough vehicles, packed bumper to bumper, to turn our entire road network into a giant car park in the not too distant future. If we take into account that road growth will go down to 0.5% a year, then clearly, the 3% vehicle growth rate is no longer tenable.

43. We will, therefore, lower the vehicle population growth rate from the current 3% to 1.5% from Quota Year 2009 (beginning in May 2009). We will review the growth rate after 3 years, and assess then whether a further reduction is necessary, in light of the slowdown in road growth.


Conclusion – Moving A Nation

44. Quite a number of people have suggested to me that I should just focus on improving the public transport system and leave these tough car demand measures to the future. They argue that since we are making such significant improvements to our public transport system, this should be sufficient to deal with our congestion problems. I wish it were so. But unfortunately, I know that it is not the case. The reason is that even if we free up some roads because some motorists decide to switch to public transport, other motorists will soon take their place, attracted by the smooth flowing traffic and very soon, these roads will again be congested. So improving public transport is necessary but not sufficient in itself to deal with congestion. We need both – public transport improvements and congestion measures.

45. There is always a tension between the individual’s personal interest in wanting unrestrained driving and the social goal of a liveable city. We have to decide whether as a people, we are willing to take hard decisions that will benefit our country; or whether, we will, like many other cities, postpone the necessary, store up the trouble and suffer future gridlock, with the attendant costs to the economy and living environment.

46. So we must move – building up our public transport so that people will have a viable alternative to the car and taking firm steps to curb excessive car travel demand, so that all of us will enjoy a quality urban environment now and into the future.

Source: Ministry of Transport, 30 January 2008

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Land Transport Review Part 2: Public transport (rail)

The Land Transport Review Part 2 which touches on rail expansion plan for the next 10 to 15 years was announced.

The major changes are the announcement of two new rail lines, extension of existing rail lines, improvements to current rail carrying capacity to ease passenger loading, acceleration of rail expansion plan, and changes to rail financing and industry framework. The rest of the changes touch on softer aspects of meeting the diverse travel needs of people. The speech is summarised in the table below (click on image for clearer text). To be able to comprehend the table, please make reference to the full Minister's speech appended below (also available here).

Click here for bigger image

In my personal opinion, I welcome the Eastern Region Line (ERL). This new line expands the rail coverage to more areas such Marine Parade and Upper East Coast. The other line, Thomson Line (TSL), is a black horse in the rail expansion plan. Virtually unheard of (though there are glimpses of it in LTA's 1996 white paper), TSL suddenly jumped onto the rail network scene, and will be completed even earlier than ERL (any reasons?). Starting from Woodlands, TSL runs through Upper Thomson corridor, serving Sin Ming and Ang Mo Kio neighbourhoods' fringe areas, before going down to city area, passing through Great World City (speculation), then joins back the Central Business District before ending in Marina Bay. Looking at its coverage, TSL does not cover much new residential catchments compared to ERL, and I foresee that it will be one of the less profitable lines among all the announced lines. The only possible reason why it was given the green light is that it will help to relieve the train load of North-South Line, which has left passengers gasping for air in the ever packed morning trains. On the 14-km westward extension to Tuas, I only have one comment: would a light-rail system serve the Tuas industrial areas more cost-efficiently?

The Minister also mentions that additional train trips will be added during the morning and evening peak periods and this will result in more comfortable ride for passengers. I see this as a long overdue enhancement to the rail lines, as SMRT train frequencies has not been keeping pace with their exponential passenger growth (read it here, note: link to external site). One interesting point mentioned is that the carrying capacity of North-South and East-West Line will be expanded by 15%, in 4 years time. What I interpret from the announcement is that the carrying capacity of North-South Line is already at its maximum due to a limitation in their design system (as the Minister has put it, "infrastructure constraint"). Changing that part of the system is a heavy investment. I believe if not for the unfortunate Nicoll Highway incident, the Circle Line would have been opened much earlier and would help to relieve passenger load at the North-South Line without the heavy investment in addressing infrastructure constraint.

On the part of shorter wait for rail lines, it is true that Downtown Line Stage 3 will be brought forward by 2 years (for your info, DTL3 runs from Chinatown and passes through Jalan Besar, Macpherson, Kaki Bukit, Bedok Reservoir, Tampines and ending in Expo). However, it is not true for the Government to say that "we will bring forward the Circle Line which was due to open from 2010 onwards". The fact is, the entire Circle Line was due to open by 2010, with the first stage due to open from 2006. What a word of difference it makes! The Nicoll Highway incident delayed the Stage 1 opening, which pushed back the completion date of the entire line from 2010 to 2011 or possible 2012 as announced by the Minister. What irks me is, in every response to questions on Circle Line opening schedule, there is always a constant emphasis that Circle Line opening is on track and is not delayed by the Nicoll Highway incident. Clearly not so.

Moving on, perhaps the most important announcement in Land Transport Review Part 2 is the part on rail financing and industry framework. Again, the Minister provided scant details on such important and ground-breaking changes as they are still in labour process. However, one thing that we are sure is that the current two rail operators arrangement will be maintained (period), and having such arrangement "enables the regulator to benchmark the operators against each other in terms of service standards and cost efficiency". I do hope that this is not the reason why there is a need to maintain more than one rail operator, as there already exists international benchmarking groups comprising rail operators in cities around the world which offers far more comprehensive and meaningful comparison.

Although it is my personal opinion that having one rail operator would make it easier for the Government to award operating rights for new rail lines (I will explain how this is so later), but the announcement on greater contestability in rail industry suggests that there could be new operators in the future, possible overseas operators, when the current operating licences of the rail operators expire in 20 - 30 years time. This will be achieved by shortening the license period from the current 30 years to 10-15 years.

However, I cannot reconcile this fact with the refinement of rail financing framework. I agree with the Minister that to support the expansion of rail network, the financing framework should move from evaluating new lines on a line approach (i.e. financial viability of the proposed new line) to evaluating new lines on a network approach (i.e. how will the proposed new line affect the financial viability of the entire rail network). However, with escalating construction costs and limited incremental passenger patronage due to overlapping catchment areas, the financial viability of new rail lines will not be great, if not impossible at all. As such, to support the proposed new rail financing framework, it is logical to have only one rail operator so that the operator can subsidise the not so financially-viable new lines with the more profitable lines. Or put it simply, having one rail operator will ensure that in the event new lines are not profitable on a line basis, the operator will have the exclusivity to lose money when they are forced to operate new lines under expanding rail network.

The rest of the review is a mixture of plans to meet the diverse needs of passengers (such as having more lifts and barrier-free access for elderly and wheel-chair passengers, allowing foldable bicycle for cyclists), to improve taxi services, and to regulate emission standards to protect the environment. I do not have much comments on those, so you may wish to read up on the details in the speech's paragraph 35 onwards.

As a final note, for those who hoped for some clarify in the role of LTA/PTC, the latest announcement provided one: fares will still be regulated by Public Transport Council subjected to fare cap formula (ref paragraph 39).

Related articles:

• Land Transport Review Part 1: Public transport (bus)
• Land Transport Review Part 2: Public transport (rail)
• Land Transport Review Part 3: Private transport (car)
  

SPEECH BY MR RAYMOND LIM, MINISTER FOR TRANSPORT AND SECOND MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS, AT THE VISIT TO KIM CHUAN DEPOT,
FRIDAY, 25 JANUARY 2008, 9.00AM

DOUBLING OUR RAIL NETWORK

1 It is my pleasure to join you here this morning at the Kim Chuan Depot.

2 Last week, you heard about our major initiatives to improve bus services. Today, I will share with you the exciting plans that we have for the rail network, and how we will meet the transport needs of diverse groups of people.

3 Let me start by telling you what commuters can look forward to in the future.

4 By 2020, people who live or work in the city and those who shop and find enjoyment there will be able to reach an MRT station within 400m on average, a mere 5-minute walk. Travelling across the city will be a breeze, because we will have a dense network of MRT stations like what we see in London and New York today.

5 Outside the city, many more areas that are not served by the MRT now, such as Sin Ming, Marine Parade and Tuas will get high speed access to the city.

6 Commuters will also enjoy a more comfortable ride and a shorter wait during peak periods on the existing lines, as additional train trips will be added to increase capacity.

7 I will touch on the new rail lines first.

New Rail Lines to be Built

Thomson Line and Eastern Region Line

8 From the heart of Marina Bay, a new MRT line, the Thomson Line, will travelnorthwards, through the Central Business District and up through Ang Mo Kio all the way to Woodlands connecting estates such as Sin Ming, Kebun Baru, Thomson and Kim Seng which do not now have a direct MRT link.From Marina Bay, this line would connect with another new MRT line, the Eastern Region Line, which will serve the residential estates of Tanjong Rhu, Marine Parade, Siglap, Bedok South and Upper East Coast, and link them to Changi in the east.The Thomson Line or TSL and the Eastern Region Line or ERL together will add 48km to our rail network.The Government has given the go-ahead for the TSL to be built by 2018, and the ERL by 2020.

9 The TSL and ERL will shorten journey times and significantly enhance the connectivity of the rail network. Commuters staying in Sin Ming can save 20 minutes out of their current 45-minute journey to the city, whereas a trip from Marine Parade to Marina Bay on the ERL would take about 20 minutes, almost as fast as travelling by car.

New extensions to North-South and East-West Lines

10 We will also add extensions to the North-South and East-West Lines, which should be completed around 2015.

11 The North-South Line now ends at the Marina Bay station in the south. We will extend the line 1-km southwards to serve upcoming developments in the southern Marina Bay area, such as the new cruise terminal in Marina South.

12 The East-West Line will be extended by another 14km into Tuas.Today, a commuter who lives in Clementi and takes the MRT to work in Tuas has to alight at Boon Lay station and then take a 35-minute bus ride to get to his workplace.With the new Tuas Extension that brings the East-West line right into the heart of Tuas, more of the journey will be on the high speed MRT, reducing his journey time by 20 minutes.

Doubling of rail network by 2020

13 These new rail lines will cost us some $20 billion to build, over and above the $20 billion that government has already committed for the on-going Boon Lay Extension (BLE), the Circle Line (CCL) and the Downtown Line (DTL).The government has decided that all these rail projects are a necessary investment to ensure that our transport infrastructure meets the needs of a growing population and an expanding economy.

14 Together with the rail lines now under construction, the new rail lines will double our network from today’s 138km to 278km in 2020. We expect our rail network to carry 3 times as many journeys, rising from today’s 1.4 million a day to 4.6 million in 2020.

15 Many more people will be served by the MRT, and they will be able to use it to get to many more places.The density of our rail network will increase by 60%, from 31 to 51 km per million population by 2020, comparable to cities like New York and London, and surpassing Hong Kong and Tokyo.

A More Comfortable Ride on Existing Lines

16 Let me turn to the existing rail lines. Train ridership is increasing steadily and commuters have said that they are feeling the squeeze, especially on the North-South and East-West lines.Now, we are far from the crowded conditions of Tokyo trains, which Mr Norman Chong, a Singaporean who has lived in Tokyo for 10 years, describes as being “so packed that bodies are crushed against one another.”He calls it his “regular morning massage”.Other MRT users have likened the average peak period loading on our trains to an off-peak crowd in Shanghai.

17 However, we are not about to let conditions deteriorate and commuters need not worry about getting morning massages any time soon.LTA closely monitors the passenger loading on our trains. To ensure a more comfortable ride for commuters, LTA has worked with the train operators to run 93 additional train trips per week during the morning and evening periods from February 2008 on the North-South East-West and the North-East lines. For commuters, this will mean less crowded trains and a reduction in waiting time by about 10-15% during peak hours.

18 Beyond that, we will also expand the carrying capacity of the North-South and East-West Lines.We will be working with SMRT to purchase more trains and address infrastructure constraints so that peak hour train frequencies can be increased. When completed in about 4 years’ time, carrying capacity will be increased by a further 15%, and commuters can look forward to shorter peak waiting times of 2 minutes, compared to the current 2.5 to 4.5 minutes at stretches that experience heavy loading, and an even more comfortable ride.

A Shorter Wait for the DTL and CCL

19 Many people are counting down to the day they can use the Circle Line (CCL). Others have asked whether we can speed up the building of the Downtown Line (DTL). We have taken to heart such feedback and worked hard with the Ministry of Finance and other partners such as URA, to see how we can bring forward the opening of these lines, to make public transport a choice mode.

DTL 3 to be brought forward by 2 years

20 To benefit residents of Bedok Reservoir and Tampines, we will bring forward the completion of DTL 3 by 2 years, from 2018 to 2016.The completion date of DTL 3 will now be just one year after that of DTL Stage 2 serving the Bukit Timah corridor. As we speed up the development of the DTL, LTA will continue to maintain stringent safety and quality standards in construction.

Earlier opening of Circle Line in 2009

21 Likewise, we will bring forward the Circle Line which was due to open from 2010 onwards. We will now open Circle Line Stage 3 in mid-2009 to benefit residents in the north and north-east.This CCL segment connects Bishan station on the North-South Line and Serangoon station on NEL and opens up multiple new connections for residents in the north and north-east. With the CCL 3, Serangoon residents will take only 25 minutes to get to Yishun by transferring to the North-South line at Bishan station, compared to 45 minutes by bus or by taking the NEL all the way to Dhoby Ghaut before transferring to the North-South line.As for residents staying in Marymount, Lorong Chuan and Bartley, they will enjoy more seamless and direct travel to the city and other parts once CCL 3 commences operation.

More Circle Line stations will be opened

22 Other than bringing forward CCL 3, we will also open more stations on the Circle Line. This will enhance the reach and connectivity of the Circle Line, and allow many more people to benefit from the MRT. We had earlier decided to build the Thomson and West Coast stations as shell stations and fit them out only when there are sufficient developments around them. As the pace of development around these stations is picking up, LTA will now fit out these stations and open them together with the other CCL stations. To enhance the accessibility of the Marina Bay area to the rest of the island, LTA will also build and open the Marina Bay station as part of the CCL extension beyond Bayfront station in 2012.

23 With all these developments that I have highlighted, commuters can look forward to new extensions or stages of new lines opening almost every other year until 2020.

Platform Screen Doors for Above-ground Stations

24 The safety of our rail commuters is key. The incidence of people entering the train track area of above-ground MRT stations has risen from an average of 16 cases a year to 30 in 2006 and 31 in 2007. Besides endangering lives, such incidents disrupt train services and inconvenience many commuters, especially during peak hours.

25 To enhance safety and reduce the incidence of track intrusions, LTA has been studying the feasibility of installing platform screen doors on above-ground MRT stations. With platform screen doors being adopted in more transit systems worldwide, their cost has fallen, making them more cost-effective now.

26 We will therefore install platform screen doors at all above-ground MRT stations, so that commuters can have safer and more reliable train services.LTA will carry out a pilot at Yishun, Jurong East and Pasir Ris stations in 2009 to ensure that operational considerations are met, before rolling this out to all stations by 2012.

Rail Financing and Industry Frameworks to be Strengthened

27 Besides the slew of initiatives I have described - extending the rail network, opening MRT lines earlier and giving commuters more comfortable and safer rides - we will also strengthen the financing framework to facilitate rail expansion.At the same time, we will introduce greater contestability in the rail industry to ensure efficient rail operations and keep costs competitive.

Review financing framework to support rail expansion

28 From now till 2020 and beyond, we are rolling out ambitious rail expansion plans to meet the travel needs of a growing population.

29 As we expand the rail network, future lines will be more expensive to build, operate and maintain as they will be mostly underground. New lines will also need time to build up their ridership, compared to mature lines which serve the more densely built-up corridors. Hence, to keep up the pace of rail expansion, MOT will work with the Ministry of Finance to refine the financing framework. The framework should allow for a network approach, instead of a line approach, to be adopted in evaluating new lines. This would potentially enable future new lines to be implemented a few years earlier than otherwise, so long as the entire rail network remains viable.

Greater contestability in the rail industry

30 We will also strengthen the rail industry framework to enhance efficiency and maintain cost competitiveness.

31 We currently have two rail operators. This enables the regulator to benchmark the operators against each other in terms of service standards and cost efficiency.

32 There have been suggestions to merge the separate rail operations to reap greater economies of scale.Others see value in retaining the existing structure, as competition between the operators helps improve efficiency and service standards.

33 Following an extensive study, LTA’s assessment is that the key issue here is not so much whether there are one or two operators but that the threat of competition must be real to the incumbents. Further, competition must not compromise the integration of the network as the seamless working of the whole network is what gives value to the commuter.

34 Going forward, we will make the rail industry more contestable, to drive efficiency and enhance service standards for commuters. A key step in enhancing contestability is to have shorter operating licences, say 10 to 15 years, compared to the existing 30-year licence periods. Operators will compete for the right to operate rail services. They will have to meet service obligations or risk being replaced at the end of their term. LTA will study the implementation issues carefully with relevant stakeholders.


Meeting Diverse Needs

Ensuring Accessibility for All

35 As we enhance the rail network, we will ensure that our MRT system and the wider transport network are accessible to all, including elderly commuters, families with young children, people with disabilities and those who are less well-off. This is part of our broader commitment to meet the needs of diverse groups within our people-centred land transport system.


Pedestrians

36 Pedestrians can look forward to a more comfortable walking environment, as we build more covered linkways and pedestrian overhead bridges, and make it more convenient to get to bus stops and MRT stations.86% of pedestrian overhead bridges will be covered by 2010. Walkways and commuter facilities will also be made accessible to all, including the less mobile. By 2010, LTA will have completed its $60 million islandwide programme to make pedestrian walkways, access to MRT stations, taxi and bus shelters, and all public roads barrier-free.

Elderly and Less Mobile Commuters

37 The introduction of low-floor, wheel-chair accessible buses has also been welcomed by elderly commuters and wheel-chair users.By 2010, 40% of our buses will be wheelchair accessible, and we intend that by 2020, the entire fleet will be so.

38 More will also be done for MRT users.All MRT stations have already been provided with at least one barrier-free entrance inclusive of a lift.However, the elderly or less mobile commuters sometimes have to make long detours to get to that one entrance with the lift, which defeats the purpose. We will therefore provide 17 additional lifts for 16 MRT stations at the cost of $70 million. Currently, these 16 stations have entrances that are either far apart or are separated by major roads. Putting in a lift at another entrance will benefit, among others, the elderly residents at the Boon Keng housing estate, enabling them to get into the MRT station more easily. So too the people who alight from Boon Keng station to go to the Kwong Wai Shiu Hospital.By end 2011, more than 70% of our MRT stations will have at least two barrier-free access routes.

Helping Poorer Singaporeans Access Public Transport

39 Another group that we pay close attention to are the less well-off Singaporeans. While fares have to reflect the cost of operations, we will see to it that public transport remains accessible to the poorer Singaporeans. Fares will continue to be regulated by the Public Transport Council by a fare cap formula, so public transport operators cannot charge whatever they think the market can bear.This will help keep public transport fares affordable for the general public. As for lower-income families who need more help with their public transport costs, the government is committed to providing targeted help through schemes such as Workfare. Help from the community is also available, such as through the transport vouchers provided by the public transport operators and government.

Improving Taxi Services

40 While we enhance public transport and ensure that all have access to it, we will also facilitate a wide range of transport choices, including taxis and cycling.

41 Taxis offer commuters high-end door-to-door service like cars. The taxi industry is liberalized and taxi supply and fares are determined by the market. LTA sets the Quality of Service standards to protect commuters’ interests.

42 To further enhance taxi services, LTA will tighten the call booking Quality of Service standards to ensure that taxis are available when commuters call for one.

43 LTA will also set up a common call booking telephone number for taxis by July 2008, to complement the taxi companies’ call booking systems. This will make it more convenient for the public, especially the tourists, to call for a taxi as they will only need to remember one telephone number, instead of the different telephone numbers of each taxi company today.

Facilitating Cyclists

44 Cyclists are another group that we will facilitate. There is a growing interest in cycling, with more people cycling for recreation, or to get around the neighbourhood.

45 We invited some of them to our land transport review focus group discussions to see how we could better cater to their needs.Some cyclists asked for more bicycle stands around our bus and MRT stations. Others made the point that some foldable bicycles were not much bigger than prams, so why not allow them onboard our trains and buses?

46 Responding to this, LTA together with the public transport operators will launch a six-month trial from March 2008 to allow cyclists to carry their foldable bicycles on board trains and buses.LTA will also work with NParks and other agencies to leverage on the park connectors to enable cyclists to get to public transport interchanges more easily. Bicycle parking facilities at the MRT stations and bus interchanges in housing estates will be improved.

47 The cyclists also shared their ‘war stories’ and asked us to help improve safety on our roads. Following a pilot in Changi, LTA will put up signs to alert motorists to the presence of cyclists along frequently used cycling routes such as those in West Coast and Thomson from March 08. LTA and the Traffic Police have also started a trial to allow cycling on pedestrian footways in Tampines.

48 But at the end of the day, it is also an issue of mutual accommodation – for the motorists to look out for cyclists on the road; and for cyclists to have a care for pedestrians.

Protecting the Environment

49 Greater use of our MRT and buses as well as non-motorised transport like cycling will help reduce greenhouse gases and protect the environment.Land transport has a critical role in whether a city is liveable or choking on its own exhaust.Our transport policies as a whole serve to ensure a high quality living environment for all Singaporeans.

50 LTA will work with the transport operators to further improve the emission standards of their fleets. By 2014, all our taxis will comply with Euro IV emission levels. By 2010, about 40% of public buses will have achieved this emission target, with 100% by 2020. Through schemes like the Green Vehicle Rebate, LTA will also work with other agencies to promote more energy efficient vehicles as well as the use of cleaner fuels such as CNG (Compressed Natural Gas).


Conclusion

51 By 2020, we will have an integrated, efficient and user-friendly public transport system that enables every Singaporean, including those with special needs, to take part in the life of the city.With a vastly expanded rail network and a bus network that works in partnership with rail, commuters will have fast and reliable connections that bring them where they want to go. A gamut of transport choices including premium buses, taxis and cycling among others, will enable different needs to be met. As society evolves and people’s needs change, our land transport offerings must keep pace as well as encompass the diversity of needs and aspirations. To achieve this, we will plan our land transport system around people, not the other way round.This then will be our touchstone in the planning of land transport policies going forward.

Source: Ministry of Transport, 25 January 2008

Land Transport Review Part 1: Public transport (bus)

The long awaited Land Transport Review is finally released, or least partially. In the release of Part 1 of the Land Transport Review, Minister Raymond Lim honed in on the sector that is being tasked to meet Singapore's growing transport needs -- public transport sector.

In what is perceived as sweeping changes, the Land Transport Review touched on several initiatives that will improve the overall transport network integration and increase the human touch which will make public transport more user-friendly. In addition, the key change will be more competition in the bus market, but details will be worked over the next few years. Sadly, the issue that rife the market earlier did not materialise -- the review does not recommend a merger (one giant transport company) or take over of selected services (one bus company and one rail company).

For the summary of the initiatives and key performance indicators, please refer to the table below (click on image for clearer text). To be able to comprehend the table, please make reference to the full Minister's speech appended below (also available here). Christopher Tan from The Straits Times also summarised the key changes which is appended below too.

Click here for bigger image

Personally, I hail the centralised bus planning. Ever since the concept of Areas of Responsibility is introduced, whereby the two bus operators are responsible for all the bus network planning in their assigned areas, passengers have suffered in terms of inefficient bus linkage across the operators' area. LTA, the agency being tasked for centralised bus planning, will have a big challenge ahead to plan the bus routes, and to explain to residents why they do not allow for point-to-point services at certain areas and why hub-and-spoke model is best etc (these complains never ends!). It is still too early to say which bus services will be merged, but the many duplicating bus services recently introduced by SBS Transit could be one of the top few candidates.

Also, I like the development of an integrated multi-modal travel information system (I've posted my ramblings about the lack of such here and here). Though no details on the platform is given, a hint can be found from "Interactive electronic map of the island" -- I have a strong feeling the platform will be Google Map, which is the only electronic map that provides strong interactivity, and it's free too! (for the record, StreetDirectory offers no interactivity while Can.com.sg provides limited interactivity)

I also like the proliferation of real-time bus arrival information at more locations, and more platform too. However, I hope the SMS trial will not be the end -- hopefully it'll be expanded to cover mobile devices too.

A season pass would also encourage more people to use public transport on a regular basis. Just like when you buy a car you will tend to use it more because of the sunk cost of purchasing a car, buying a season pass will encourage you to travel more on public transport to recoup the sunk cost of a pass to make it more worthwhile. However, I have a feeling that if SBS Transit had not came up with their proprietary $98 per month bus season pass which drew flakes from the public for being restrictive (not able to use on MRT and SMRT services), this initiative would not have been mentioned in the review itself. Just my ramblings.

One issue I have with the changes is distance-based through fare system. Although the abolishment of transfer rebate is long overdue, the solution should not be distance-based through fare system. Rather, it should be zonal-based through fare system. With distance-based fare, you will still have the issue of passenger being penalised due to inefficient bus/train network (think buses that need to snake through neighbourhood to extend its coverage). For example, to get from Orchard to Tiong Bahru, I can take a bus which is more direct compared to a train, which take a winding path down Raffles Place and Tanjong Pagar before coming back to Tiong Bahru. However, I may prefer to take train because of many reasons, for example, I like the convenient services provided at the train stations (ATMs/bank/shops), I want to get away from the rain etc, but I will be paying more because of the distant-based fare structure. In addition, the distance-based fare structure will encourage people to take the most direct route if they want to save on the fare, but that route may not be the fastest. My point is, the Minister has already made a point to improve point-to-point travelling, the natural choice to set a fare should be point-to-point too, which a zonal fare fare system offers this. In addition,

All in all, why are these changes not implemented earlier? To be fair to the local players (be it LTA/private operators), all these initiatives are not new. In fact, some of the initiatives have been put to trial many years ago. However, the issue with implementing the initiatives boils down to COST - LTA is unwilling to provide more funding, private operators are unable to agree on jointly developing a single system to share cost etc. Also, the two companies truly lived out the meaning of "competitors" where they compete with each other head-on, rather than competing with their real competitor of private transport (cars), although recently they seemed to have move on. I am glad that the Government is finally providing funding to develop these initiatives to further advance a stagnating (if not degenerating) public transport system.

Having said those, do look out for Part 2 of Land Transport Review at the end of this month, which will be focusing on how to manage cars' usage.

[Post note: There will be another part to the Land Transport Review, which covers enhancement to the MRT system. I'm not sure which one will be released first. Thanks Tim for pointing this out.]

Related articles:

• Land Transport Review Part 1: Public transport (bus)
• Land Transport Review Part 2: Public transport (rail)
• Land Transport Review Part 3: Private transport (car)
  

SPEECH BY MR RAYMOND LIM,MINISTER FOR TRANSPORT AND SECOND MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS, AT THE LAUNCH OF THE LAND TRANSPORT GALLERY,
18 JANUARY 2008, 9.20 AM

PUTTING THE COMMUTER AT THE CENTRE

Introduction: The Land Transport Review Journey

1. I am happy to join you this morning to launch the Land Transport Gallery and to share with you the outcomes of our land transport review.

2. We started this review more than a year ago to take stock of the 1996 White Paper on Land Transport and to put in place a new roadmap that will guide land transport developments over the next 10 to 15 years.

3. Today, I will speak about making public transport a choice mode, a viable alternative to the car; and in particular, how we will make public transport more seamless for commuters and improve bus services to help achieve this. I will cover our MRT enhancements and car demand management plans later this month.

4. The central question that we sought to answer in our review was this: What will it take for the majority of Singaporeans to choose the bus or MRT over the car?

5. This is a key question for us because a high reliance on public transport is fundamental to a liveable and environmentally sustainable city. As a city state, Singapore is the second most densely populated country in the world. Already, roads take up 12% of our total land area and the demands on our land transport system are set to increase by 60%, from our current 8.9 million daily journeys to 14.3 million by 2020. Making public transport the centrepiece of our land transport system will be crucial, to keep congestion in check and help protect our environment.

6. With this question in mind – how we can make public transport a choice mode - we set out to understand the perspectives of our commuters.


Insights from Commuters

7. Now, for many, a car means convenience, more control over one’s schedule and time saved, all very important given our busy lives.

8. Hence, if we want people to embrace the bus or train as ‘my other car’, then it stands to reason that the bus and the train will have to be more like ‘my car’. Public transport must be more convenient and comfortable, and journey times more competitive with the car, while remaining affordable.

9. So we asked people, where are the pain points in our public transport system?

10. These were the common refrains: Long waits. Erratic bus arrivals. Circuitous feeders. Overcrowded buses. Give us more point-to-point buses because transfers are inconvenient; the waiting time for each leg adds up, and the total journey time is much too long.

11. To be fair, these comments do not give us the whole picture. In representative surveys taken to get the view of commuters as a whole, 8 in 10 commuters that LTA polled in their 2007 Public Transport Customer Satisfaction Survey were satisfied with the public transport system as a whole, similar to 2006. The International Association of Public Transport (UITP) also named Singapore as one of the top cities for public transport in their 2006 “Mobility in Cities” report.

12. However, LTA’s commuter surveys have also highlighted long waiting times and overcrowding as key concerns. To make public transport competitive with the car, we agree that the system must do even better, and in particular, our review has zeroed in on these problems that commuters have highlighted.


A People-Centred Land Transport System

13. Let me spell out our new philosophy in developing our land transport system going forward.

14. We will do more to put the commuter at the centre of our land transport system. Our land transport system must be planned and built for people, not vehicles. This means seeing through the eyes of the commuter from the time he steps out of his house to the time he gets to his destination. In fact, it starts even before that, as soon as he thinks about making a journey.

15. We will invest in quality, not just system capacity. Simply saying we have planned for enough trains and buses for the increased travel demand in 2020, is not enough. We need to ask: Can people get to a train station or bus stop quickly and comfortably? Are the connections good? How long is total journey time and waiting time between transfers? How crowded are the buses and trains? Can people get timely and user-friendly travel information? And so on. Everything that is important to the commuter needs to be thought through. Only then would we be able to achieve our target of making 70% of all morning peak hour trips on public transport by 2020.

16. I will now highlight the principal strategies to address the problems raised by commuters:

(I) Making our Hub-and-spoke System Seamless

(II) Introducing More Competition to Drive Efficiency and Service Improvements

(III) Involving our People in the Land Transport System



(I) Making our Hub-and-spoke System Seamless

17. First, we will enhance our hub-and-spoke system to address the key problems of waiting time, travel time and over-crowding. It is the right model for our public transport system. The alternative is to have many direct services, which cannot work in a compact city state like Singapore.

18. Let me illustrate the difference between the two approaches. Let us take 20 origins and 20 destination points with a hub in the centre. With a hub-and-spoke system, you will have 20 buses going into the hub from the origins and 20 buses leaving the hub to the destinations, or 40 bus services to run this system. Take away the hub, replace it with direct services, and you will need 400 bus services.

19. A direct service between every origin and destination point is thus inefficient and expensive. There would be long waits between buses as the passenger volumes would not be able to justify frequent services for many of the services. Our hub-and-spoke model is not only much more efficient, but also delivers better outcomes for commuters.

20. Transfers are part and parcel of a hub-and-spoke system. They can in fact reduce overall travel time, especially for longer journeys using rail, because trains travel faster than traffic on the roads. But unfortunately, transfers today are not as seamless and easy as they should be.

21. Ms Jeanne Conceicao, a participant at one of the focus group discussions, told us about her experience with the daily commute. She gave up on the MRT in favour of the taxi. Taking the bus or MRT was just too wearying. Too many decision points, she said. She had to take a feeder bus to the MRT station, hop on the North-South line, then transfer onto the East-West Line, and then hop onto another feeder bus that took her to Heng Mui Keng Terrace where she worked. The uncertainty of the journey time - how long it would take for the feeder bus to arrive; whether taking the MRT to Raffles Place or Jurong East interchange to transfer would be faster - it took too much out of her. In the end, she decided to take a taxi, and would be buying a car.

22. This really drives home the point that we need to improve the connectivity of our hub-and-spoke system, in particular the integration between the feeders, trunk buses and the MRT. Only then can we ensure seamless transfers and make the whole public transport journey as convenient as possible.

23. System unity is thus critical: the entire public transport system should be planned and operated as a whole and not as separate parts. The choice for the commuter should not be between bus or rail but between public transport and the car. But this is not the case today.

24. Currently, the two public transport operators plan the bus routes within their areas of operation based on commercial considerations, subject to minimum service obligations.

25. This has led to a situation where out of more than 250 bus services, only 35% are run at intervals of 10 minutes or less. Some even run at intervals longer than 30 minutes.

26. Then there are the feeder buses that make huge, circuitous loops before they get to the MRT station or bus interchange.

27. Yet others have pointed out that there was no integrated travel information across both operators. Up till recently, before LTA worked with the operators to develop the Electronic Bus Journey Planner which is now on the Transitlink website, you could go to the SBST website, look up a bus service to take you from Orchard Road to Choa Chu Kang and fail to find one. This is because Choa Chu Kang is under SMRT’s area of responsibility, and not SBST’s.

28. We will undertake five major initiatives to enhance our hub and spoke system and address the problems I have highlighted. They are:

(a) LTA to undertake Centralised Bus Planning;

(b) Distance-based Through Fares to Facilitate Transfers;

(c) Bus Priority Measures to Speed Up Buses;

(d) Integrated Public Transport Hubs; and

(e) Integrated Public Transport Service Information.



(a) LTA To Undertake Centralised Bus Planning

29. Buses are an integral part of our public transport system, serving two-thirds of all commuter trips today. If we allow the bus to become the poor cousin of the train, the system as a whole suffers and commuters suffer. Rail and buses must work in close partnership.

30. This is why, by 2009, LTA will also take on central planning of the bus network, so that we have one agency that does all the land transport planning with the people in mind. By integrating the planning of the bus, rail as well as the road network, LTA will be able to optimise the performance of the entire land transport system for commuters’ benefit. The Public Transport Council (PTC) will continue to have oversight of the bus network and service quality.

31. By 2015, our target is for 80% of public transport commuters to complete their journeys within an hour, from the point they set off, to arriving at their destination, up from 71% today. We will narrow the gap between public transport and car journey times. By 2020, journeys on public transport should not take more than 1.5 times that by car, a reduction from the current 1.7 times.

32. The LTA and Public Transport Council (PTC) have already made a start by tightening the Quality of Service (QoS) standards for buses to address problem areas. To shorten waiting time for buses and reduce crowding, the bus operators are now required to despatch buses from the bus interchanges at more frequent intervals. At least 80% of bus services must be run at peak frequencies of 10 minutes or less by August 2009, compared with 15 minutes today.

33. Going forward, LTA will ensure that there are more frequent and direct feeder services so that commuters get to MRT stations and bus interchanges in less time. Bus and rail service schedules at the interchanges will also be better coordinated, to cut down waiting times and facilitate transfers.


(b) Distance-based Through Fares to Facilitate Transfers

34. To further enhance transfers, we will introduce a distance-based through fare system by 2009 to get rid of the transfer fare penalty. Under a through fare system, commuters will pay a fare based on the distance they travel on bus, rail or both, irrespective of the transfers they make.

35. For example, an SMU (Singapore Management University) student who lives in Sin Ming Avenue could take a direct bus service 162 from SMU which costs $1.19. Or he could hop onto 166 or 167 if it comes along first, and make a transfer along Upper Thomson Road onto bus service 52, 410 or 162, whichever arrives first. The latter would be more expensive and cost up to $1.61 today. With through fares, the student would pay the same fare, whether he takes one bus, or two buses, along the same route as there will be no transfer penalty.

36. As LTA works with the operators to refine the fare system, it will also work towards making available an integrated season pass for travel on both bus and rail regardless of operator.


(c) Bus Priority Measures to Speed Up Buses

37. To speed up the buses and enhance their reliability, we have introduced bus priority measures such as full-day bus lanes so that buses can travel unimpeded by other traffic. These have improved bus speeds by an average of 7% and as much as 16% on some roads. We will do more.

38. We will make the coverage of our network of bus lanes more comprehensive, especially within the CBD. By June 2008, the network of normal bus lanes will be extended from 120 km to 150 km, and full-day bus lanes will treble from 7 km to 23 km.

39. Even with the bus lanes, buses are sometimes slowed down by other left-turning traffic at traffic light junctions. LTA will therefore be piloting a new scheme by end 2008, to give signal priority to buses at traffic light junctions, so that buses have right-of-way over other vehicles turning left into side roads.

40. Another key aspect of reducing travel times on our buses is to reduce the dwell time at bus bays. An SBST survey showed that up to 9% of travel time on buses is spent trying to get out of bus bays. To address this, LTA will make it mandatory for motorists to give way to buses exiting from bus bays by end 2008.

41. All these bus priority measures will help work towards increasing bus speeds to 20-25 kph by 2009, up from the current 16 kph for feeder buses and 19 kph for trunk buses.


(d) Integrated Public Transport Hubs

42. Part of making public transport more convenient is to reduce the physical effort of accessing our bus interchanges and MRT stations, especially with our high humidity and sudden rain showers. We will do more to integrate our bus and MRT stations and even turn them into lifestyle hubs like Raffles Xchange and Tanjong Pagar MRT station.

43. With the opening of Ang Mo Kio Hub last year, residents have told us they liked the air-conditioned bus interchange where they can pop into shops at the passenger concourse before their bus arrived. Others liked the convenience of the underground linkway to Ang Mo Kio MRT station. These attributes have helped increase public transport ridership at this hub.

44. We will therefore embark on a programme to build more integrated public transport hubs as well as upgrade existing bus interchanges. We have already started building two more integrated bus interchanges at Boon Lay (2009) and Clementi (2011) which will be ready in a few years, bringing the total number of integrated bus interchanges to 5 (Ang Mo Kio, Toa Payoh and Sengkang). Over the next 10 years, we will upgrade another 5 interchanges at Bedok, Jurong East, Serangoon, Joo Koon and Marina South in tandem with the re-development in these areas, to better integrate our transport hubs with the surrounding facilities.


(e) Integrated Public Transport Service Information

45. Travel information was another missing link in the commuting chain until recently.

46. Now, all 4500 bus stops island wide have bus service information posters unlike in the past. LTA has also installed Key Bus Service Maps at 36 bus stops in the Orchard Road area. These maps set out the key bus routes and places of interest in a clear pictorial format, so commuters can find their bus more easily.

47. Going forward, to reduce the anxiety of waiting and provide more certainty on journey times, we will make available dynamic, real-time travel information to commuters on the go. Last year, LTA piloted real-time bus arrival information panels at 30 bus stops in the CBD and two HDB towns (Yishun and Ang Mo Kio). This has worked well and LTA will install these panels at another 20 bus stops by May 2008. In addition, from July, LTA will embark on a trial to use SMS to provide real-time bus arrival information to commuters at these bus stops.

48. To help people plan their journeys better, LTA and Transitlink will come up with an enhanced Integrated Public Transport Journey Planner which also has basic map features, by July 2008. You can get travel information via the internet or the hotline to plan out your route, and yes it will cover both SBST and SMRT services.

49. As a further step, LTA will develop an Integrated Multi-Modal Travel Information System for door-to-door travel planning. It will have an interactive electronic map of the island where commuters can get information on bus service routes, bus stops and rail stations, arrival information and landmarks at a glance, at home or on their office computer, and also when they are on the move via their mobile devices.



(II) Introducing More Competition to Drive Efficiency and Service Improvements


Enhance Contestability of Bus Services

50. Competition enhances efficiency and keeps costs competitive. Cities in Europe and Australia and Hong Kong have moved towards making their bus services more contestable. They found that introducing some form of competition, or even just the real threat of competition, is an effective way to keep bus operations efficient and raise service standards.

51. Hence, our second broad strategy is to gradually open up our basic bus service sector for more competition, by making the right to operate bus services contestable. There are limited economies of scale for bus operations above a fleet size of 500 buses. Hence, our current bus industry of about 3,700 buses could potentially support more than the current two operators.

52. Our intention is to introduce competition “for” the market, where operators compete periodically for the right to provide a package of bus services designed by LTA. They will have to fulfil service obligations or risk being replaced when their term is up. This is different from competition “in” the market or head-on competition for market share, which would be detrimental to an integrated public transport system where the emphasis is on co-operation to grow the overall pie.

53. Injecting greater contestability into our bus industry is a major change. Not only is it critical to get the policies right, it is just as important that we implement the changes smoothly. Hence, over the next year or so, we will study all the issues carefully together with all relevant stakeholders, before embarking on any changes.

More Niche Services - Premium Bus & other Non-Basic Services

54. To keep up the momentum of service improvement, we will continue to encourage a range of niche bus services to give commuters more choices. One example is the premium buses which are proving to be very popular. Another example is the FastForward services which are express services that run during peak hours, and which can cut journey time by up to 20% because of fewer stops.


(III) Involving our People in the Land Transport System


55. Now, these exciting plans that we have for public transport commuters would not be what they are, if not for the contributions of the many people who took time to share their perspectives.

56. Indeed, the whole land transport review has benefited from the inputs of a broad spectrum of stakeholders and public. Besides the many emails, web postings and letters we received, numerous people participated in our focus group discussions, and Great Transport Challenge Game. In total, more than 4500 people contributed their time, energies and ideas to the review.

57. We will continue to keep our fingers firmly on the pulse of our people, their changing travel needs, preferences and the interests they represent. We will also enhance what we have already started with this land transport review.

58. Moving forward, the community, the people who use the transport system, will play a larger role in helping to shape and implement land transport plans and initiatives.

59. To support the community’s involvement in transport issues, LTA has set up a new “Land Transport Community Partnership Division”. Teams from this division will be assigned to each constituency to handle not only the day-to-day road and traffic management functions more effectively, but to also engage the community more closely on the ground.

60. LTA will also be launching its Community Outreach Programme where gatherings will be held with grassroots leaders to share and discuss land transport policies and plans. To reach out to young people, LTA will step up efforts to engage them in their schools and through the new media. And of course, today’s launch of the Land Transport Gallery is an important part of this holistic effort to reach out to our people.


Conclusion

61. With all these changes, commuters will have a public transport system where the bus and rail work together in close partnership. Fast and frequent feeders will bring commuters to the high speed trunk routes served by rail or trunk buses. Services will be co-ordinated and easy to understand. Buses will travel speedily on the roads, aided by comprehensive bus priority measures.

62. Commuters will make convenient transfers, without any fare penalty, in the comfort of integrated public transport interchanges. Those who wish to can make use of an integrated season pass. They will have easy access to public transport information on the web and on the phone, including real-time information while on the go.

63. Now, besides making these public transport improvements, it is also important that we manage car usage. We need to do more of both to ensure that we have a quality urban living environment. In particular, to keep our roads free flowing, we will need to lower our vehicle growth rate and raise ERP charges. In the past few years, our roads have become more congested. Driving in the Suntec area in the evening, for instance, is often a real challenge. We must do something about this as the city centre is the heart of our economy. We will also need to raise the performance bar for our ERP system, so that motorists who use these roads, be it in the CBD or the expressways, get a better driving experience. I will be announcing these measures later this month as part of our land transport review.

1. Together, these initiatives to transform our public transport system and manage car usage will help ensure that Singaporeans enjoy the benefits that come from a vibrant and growing city, rather than pay heavily for it through gridlock and pollution.

Source: Ministry of Transport, 18 Jan 2008

[Author's note: The wrong numbering of paragraph 64 is inherent in the press release itself.]

Key changes to improve land transport in S'pore
by Christopher Tan, The Straits Times

• Distance-based fares to allow transfers
Commuter will no longer be penalised when they transfer from one bus to another while still on the same journey. The fare will be calculated based on the total distance travelled instead and the commuters will pay less for the distance. For example, a trip from Sin Ming in Thomson to the Singapore Management University at Bras Basah will cost $1.09 instead of $1.31 now.

• Buses will get more priority on the road
There will be more full-day bus lanes so that buses can have unimpeded travel. It will be mandatory for all other vehicles to give way to buses exiting from bus bays by end of 2008. By June 2008, network of normal bus lanes will be extended from 120 km to 150 km, and full-day bus lanes will treble from 7 km to 23 km. Bus drivers now spend 9 per cent of their time on the roads waiting for others to give way. These measures to give priority to buses will increase bus speeds to 20 to 25 kph by 2009, up from the current 16 kph for feeder buses and 19 kph for trunk buses.

• More competition to operate buses
LTA will open up the market and tender out parcels of bus routes to anyone who can deliver the services at the standards it spells out. Cities in Europe, Australia and Hong Kong have moved towars making their bus services more contestable. They found that introducing some form of competition, or even just the real threat of competition, is an effective way to keep bus operations efficient and raise service standards. There are now two public transport operators - the SMRT and SBS Transit - in Singapore running about 3,700 buses on the roads. This has lead to a situation where out of more than 250 bus services, only 35 per cent are run at intervals of 10 minutes or less. Some even run at intervals longer than 30 minutes. The feeder buses make huge, circuitous loops before they get to the MRT station or bus interchange. There is no integrated travel information from the two operators.

• Centralised bus planning
The public transport system serves two-thirds of all commuter trips in Singapore, thus, rail and buses must work in close partnership. By 2009, LTA will take on central planning of the bus network so that there will be only one agency handling the land transport planning, which will integrate the bus, rail and the road network.

• Speeding up travel by public transport
By 2015, the target is for 80 per cent of public transport commuters to complete their journeys within an hour - up from 71 per cent today. Gap between public transport and car journey times will be narrowed. By 2020, journeys on public transport should not take more than 1.5 times that by car, a drop from the current 1.7 times. At least 80 per cent of bus services must be run at peak frequencies of 10 minutes or less by August 2009, compared with 15 minutest today.

• More niche services
Expect more niche bus services like the premium buses from housing estates to the city centre. Over 60 are running and another 40 more are awaiting approval.

• Integrated public transport service information
Travel information is a missing link in the commuting chain until recently. To reduce the anxiety of waiting and provide more certainty on journey times, dynamic, real-time information will be made available to commuters on the go. To help people plan their journeys better, LTA and Transitlink will come up with an enhanced integrated public transport journey planner, which also has basic map features by July 2008. There will also be an interactive electronic map of the island where commuters can get information on bus service routes, bus stops and rail stations, arrival information and landmarks at a glance - at home or on office computer, and mobile devices.

Source: The Straits Times, 18 Jan 2008